July market overview
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
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August 2008
July ARMLS Reports
Resale Listings
The listing count reported in the July Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS)1 Reports, which were released on August 18th, was 53,546—down 280 listings from the June reports. The listing quantity has declined for the 4th straight month, and has now returned to approximately the same level as April 2007. With the exception of December 2007, the listing count has been fairly flat for the last twelve months. This current level, however, is substantially above the record level of listings prior to January 2005 which was 30,046 listings in February 2003.
Resale Sales
ARMLS-reported sales for July rose about 2% from the June sales figure with an increase of 218. On an annually adjusted basis sales were up 1,239 or over 26% from July 2007. This is the second month that there has been an increase in sales over the same month in the prior year since September 2005. July’s sales quantity is typically just behind June’s and seems to be doing a little better than the normal calendar cycle. In this normal calendar cycle, sales tend to be highest in the summer and then gradually taper off over the next few months before resuming the climb during the first quarter of each year. The winter months are consistently the lowest in sales.
Our sources of data for these displays are the ARMLS reports. In these, there are three months, January – March 2005, for which we have not shown listing data because of apparent discrepancies. Additionally, ARMLS notes that the listing information for March through August 2002 may contain errors, but we have chosen to display this reasonable data above.
A Two Year Perspective
The graph below displays the same data as above, but focuses on only the most recent 24 months.
Adjusted Monthly Sales Trend
Sales, when compared to one year ago, rose for the second time since September 2005. This increase of 1,239 is illustrated in the chart below.
ARMLS REPORTED SALES
The chart is divided into market condition segments by comparing current sales activity to the sales activity during the same month in the previous year. Orange reflects relatively normal conditions; Green shows higher than average sales; and Red indicates slowing market activity.
Analysis of these figures clearly shows the following:
1. Prior to thirty-four months ago, sales increased every month for the past four years when compared to that month in the year prior (from orange to green, then back to orange).
2. The thirty-four most current months (red) clearly demonstrate that the hot market of March 2004 – September 2005 has totally disappeared.
3. The collective increase in sales for the past forty months (orange and red) has been at a substantially slower rate than during the preceding thirteen months (green).
Our Assessment of the Resale Market
Supply and demand are interrelated variables in the Real Estate Market. Currently both of these variables are driving the market. Up until two years ago, demand was the primary driver. Then for the past two years supply was the primary driver. In the last few months demand has also fallen off substantially from what we had considered the norm - a pace similar to 2002 and 2003.
Because of the prolonged over-supply situation, appreciation in resale housing prices has totally disappeared. The market has now entered a phase where we are seeing an overall price level decline. A significant price adjustment will be necessary to realign the supply and demand variable. It is difficult to tell how long that will take. Posted by Brian on 09:57 PM • (0) Comments • (0) Trackbacks • Permalink • Email This Post
