December Market analysis
Monday, February 09, 2009
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January 2009
December ARMLS Reports
Resale Listings
The listing count reported in the December Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS)1 Reports, which were released on January 16th, was 53,792—down 2,435 listings from the November reports. The listing quantity has now been above 52,000 for 22 months and has not varied more than 5% during that time period. This current level remains substantially above the record level of listings prior to January 2005 which was 30,046 listings in February 2003.
Resale Sales
ARMLS-reported sales for December climbed 25% from the November sales figure with an increase of 1,107. On an annually adjusted basis sales were up 2,112 or about 62% from December 2007. This is the seventh consecutive month that there has been an increase in sales over the same month in the prior year. December’s sales quantity typically drops a little from November’s, so this month’s change is out of the ordinary per the normal calendar cycle. In the normal calendar cycle, sales tend to be highest in the summer and then gradually taper off over the next few months before resuming the climb during the first quarter of each year. The winter months are consistently the lowest in sales.
Our sources of data for these displays are the ARMLS reports. In these, there are three months, January – March 2005, for which we have not shown listing data because of apparent discrepancies. Additionally, ARMLS notes that the listing information for March through August 2002 may contain errors, but we have chosen to display this reasonable data above.
A Two Year Perspective
The graph below displays the same data as above, but focuses on only the most recent 24 months.
Adjusted Monthly Sales Trend
Sales, when compared to one year ago, rose for the seventh month in a row. This increase of 2,112 is illustrated in the chart below.
The above chart is divided into market condition segments by comparing current sales activity to the sales activity during the same month in the previous year. Orange reflects relatively normal conditions; Green shows higher than average sales; and Red indicates slowing market activity.
Analysis of these figures clearly shows the following:
1. From January 2003 through September 2005, sales increased every month when compared to that month in the year prior (from orange to green, then back to orange).
2. Every sales number from October 2005 through May 2008- thirty two months - reflects a decrease in sales from the same month in the year prior (red).
1. Starting in June 2008 each month has shown an increase in MLS sales from the same month one year prior (orange). Posted by Brian on 12:36 AM • (0) Comments • (0) Trackbacks • Permalink • Email This Post
